Cuse Country

Home Away From Dome for Syracuse Orange Fans

ratings poop index

Posted by syracusan on January 25, 2007

Based on my comment yesterday about the sad state of the Big East’s NCAA Tournament hopes, I thought I’d do a little mid-season RPI reporting. I’ve compiled estimations from 4 of the main services for your perusing enjoyment (or misery). The first number is Kenpom, the second is TeamRankings.com, the third is WarrenNolan, and the last is CBS Sportsline:

Pitt: 4, 4, 4, 4
Villanova: 14, 20, 15, 21
Marquette: 25, 24, 24, 25
GTown: 37, 34, 37, 39
Syracuse: 44, 52, 44, 54
Notre Dame: 49, 46, 50, 48
West Virginia: 55, 68, 54, 53
DePaul: 61, 83, 65, 61
Providence: 63, 75, 62, 52
Louisville: 73, 85, 77, 70
UConn: 87, 89, 76, 85
Seton Hall: 107, 142, 104, 113
Cinci: 140, 152, 141, 145
St Johns: 148, 161, 149, 163
South Florida: 167, 176, 168, 173
Rutgers: 178, 194, 185, 180

So what can we learn from this, besides that TeamRankings.com bizarrely hates the Big East? For one, I’d say UConn is already d-o-n-e, barring an automatic bid from the BE Tourney. I’d also say it gets real ugly, real fast after those top 4 teams. If you’re outside the top 40, it’s tough to get an at-large birth. I would still put ND in the dance thanks to their quality non-conference wins (though it would be nice if they could get a single road win other than the Maryland game), but the rest of their resume is as pedestrian as SU’s. I’d also put the Orange in the same category as the Irish: 2 quality wins (our miracles against Nova and Marquette), one horrendous loss to St Johns, and mediocrity everywhere else, all mirroring ND. In fact, SU and the Irish are identical bubble teams at the moment, so we better think long and hard about beating them next week.

There’s still a lot of season left, thankfully, but this is the point where a team’s long term quality begins to reveal itself. Where ever we sit after the next couple weeks will probably be an accurate reflection of what we’re capable of. Late season hot streaks are always possible, but they involve more luck than skill, and each year only a few teams in the country have that kind of good fortune.

Also, for the record, the Big East is universally listed as the 7th best conference by the services. Last season, we were generally listed as 2nd, and if I remember correctly the only team in the whole conference not in the RPI top 100 was South Florida. The mighty have fallen indeed.

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